In an
investment portfolio, the withdrawal rate is the monetary percentage from which
a retiree draws from his account each year. A “safe” withdrawal rate is a fixed percentage
distributed as a systematic withdrawal that reasonably expects portfolio funds
to last throughout the retiree’s lifetime. When determining your personal retirement
withdrawal rate, it’s important to include adjustments for inflation and the
portfolio’s ability to generate earnings throughout a specific time frame,
ensuring the account isn’t entirely depleted.1
These are
the basic parameters for calculating a “safe” withdrawal rate, but your
specified rate can vary, depending on the total portfolio value, safeguards against
market risk and inflation, living expense requirements and life expectancy. We’re
here to help you determine your retirement withdrawal rate for your individual
situation.
The “safe” withdrawal
rate strategy was originally based on financial planner William Bengen’s
research in the 1990s. At the time, a prevailing theory was if an investment
portfolio generated an average annual return of 7 percent, then that was the
percentage that could be withdrawn each year. However, Bengen introduced the “sequence
of returns risk” concept, recognizing that an average annual return represents
a series of higher and lower returns. If an individual experiences significantly
low returns early in retirement, the portfolio would be too depleted to sustain
a high withdrawal rate, even if that rate is justified by a higher average
annual return during a 15-year time period. Bengen concluded at that
time that 4 percent is generally considered a “safe” withdrawal rate.2
Other
financial advisors assert that if the returns sequence is favorable in early
retirement, retirees could theoretically be able to increase their spending
rate. In some scenarios, the 4 percent rule could even double or triple a
retiree’s wealth by the end of retirement because his conservative withdrawal
rate would not spend the bulk of his portfolio gains during that time period.3
Another
point to consider is that the original 4 percent guideline was based on
retirees spending the same amount each year throughout retirement. However,
recent research has shown that retirees tend to decrease spending as they get
older. Based on this decreased spending premise, analysts have determined that the
4 percent rate could be underestimated by 0.32 to 0.75 percent. In other words,
because spending tends to decrease throughout retirement, the “safe” withdrawal
rate guideline may be closer to a 4.5 percent.4
When
developing a retirement withdrawal rate, remember that an investment portfolio
should be sufficiently diversified to allow for growth opportunity paired with
risk-mitigation financial vehicles.5
Content prepared by Kara
Stefan Communications
1 Bogleheads.org. Jan. 10, 2017. “Safe
Withdrawal Rates.” https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates.
Accessed March 3, 2017.
2 Wade Pfau. Forbes. April 19, 2016. “The 4%
Rule and The Search for a Safe Withdrawal Rate.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2016/04/19/the-4-rule-and-the-search-for-a-safe-withdrawal-rate/#772ae67f5a10.
Accessed March 3, 2017.
3 Michael Kitces. Nerd’s Eye View. June 3,
2015. “The Ratcheting Safe Withdrawal Rate – A More Dominant Version Of The 4%
Rule?” https://www.kitces.com/blog/the-ratcheting-safe-withdrawal-rate-a-more-dominant-version-of-the-4-rule/.
Accessed March 3, 2017.
4 Derek Tharp. Nerd’s Eye View. Feb. 22, 2017.
“The Impact of Decreasing Retirement Spending on Safe Withdrawal Rates.” https://www.kitces.com/blog/safe-withdrawal-rates-with-decreasing-retirement-spending/.
Accessed March 3, 2017.
5 Fidelity. “Diversify Your Portfolio.” https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/fixed-income-bonds/diversify-your-portfolio.
Accessed April 10, 2017.
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independent firm helping individuals create retirement strategies using a
variety of insurance and investment products to custom suit their needs and
objectives. This material is intended to provide general information to help
you understand basic financial planning strategies and should not be construed
as financial advice. All investments are subject to risk including the
potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or
protect against loss in periods of declining values.
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